Proteus — New Insights for a New Age

In 1999, a research team from the NRO engaged in a scenario-based planning activity named Proteus to explore ideas for innovative research projects. The team also developed a set of insights into the future. They considered the insights to be facets of a system of lenses through which one could study the future. These lenses assisted the team in proposing new research directions for the agency. The construct of the Proteus lenses has reemerged as applicable to future planning for not only intelligence, but for military planners, for interagency planners, and for (potentially) private sector planners. …

In the year 1998, a group of intellectuals were brought together by the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) to spend time and intellectual capital looking at possible future world scenarios, and compiling a group of necessary and important insights into ways of dealing with future national threats and issues. The project took on the name of “Proteus,” looking at insights for and from the year 2020. The resultant book bearing the same name was published by NRO in the year 2000. …

Military operations in the historic American way of warfare are a thing of the past, as potential adversaries readily acknowledge that they are no kinetic match for U.S. forces. Asymmetric warfare and terrorism are the current and emerging realities of warfare, as demonstrated currently in Iraq and in other geographic regions of the world. Wealth, power, teaming relationships, the herd mentality, and the perception of the truth are areas that U.S. planners need to have a better understanding of in order to prepare for current and future endeavors. Perhaps the most important of all insights is that of “Starlight,” the ability to visualize differences in perception from differing points of view. For the U.S. to continue to look at issues through the historic and Cold War set of lenses could be militarily disappointing — not only for future warfare but also for current concerns. We must get past the “hubris” of being the “biggest and baddest,” and look at conflict through the eyes of our opponents, or at least be willing to accept that there are different perceptions of what success in military operations is. Proteus lenses will provide the vehicle for the paradigm shift required to achieve this level of understanding.