Proteus — The Genesis, Then and Now

Christopher Schroeder
Excerpts from the presentation

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Customer
National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), Advanced Systems and Technology (AS&T) Directorate

Charter
1.  Explore the “problem space” for 2020
2. Identify technology needs for systems-after-next

Approach
Problem Identification and Definition Initiative
·   2020 Forecast Document — Enduring/emerging problems
·   2020 Observables Document — Phenomenology

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Scenario-Based Planning

Rigorous Approach for:
·   Managing uncertainties surrounding investment decisions
·   Exploring alternative operating environments
·   Focusing on plausible outcomes
·   Identifying robust problem-solving strategies
·   Testing which will work “No matter how the future unfolds”

Typically Chosen When:
·   Ambiguity in the operating environment is high
·   Pace of change and degree of turmoil is accelerating
·   Planning horizon stretches out to ten years or more

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Workshops Questions

1.      Who are the key global actors?

2.     What are strengths/weaknesses?

3.     Describe interactions

4.     What are U.S. global power positions?

5.     What is valued?

6.     What do actors want?

7.     What will actors protect?

8.     How do actors express power?

9.     What tools, approaches, methods, and structures are used?

10.  Is technology a stabilizer or not?

11.   What is the global “threat space?”

12.  How are threats defined?

13.  What is basis for threats?

14.  How/why do threats become conflicts?

15.  Where do threats/conflicts involving U.S. originate?

16.  How do U.S. define friends and/or allies?

17.  What are U.S. national security objectives?

18.  Which threats are most immediate?

19.  Which threats could blindside U.S.?

20. How would you prioritize threats?

21.  What is intelligence community mission?

22.  What capabilities need to be developed by IC to fulfill mission?

23.  What AR&D initiatives are needed in 2000 to achieve IC mission in 2020?

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The Proteus Products

Insights
Robust conditions across many futures for the intelligence community

NRO Strategies
How the organization can face a new future

AS&T Strategies
Building a world-class technology incubator

Gaming
Influencing the POM via experiments and logic

Taxonomy
A rigorous methodology for assessing technology development, mitigating risk, and weighing investment options

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From “The Third World War, August 1985: a Future History”
There was a nice story of a political prophet in Munich in 1928, who was asked to prophesy what would be happening to the burghers of his city in five, fifteen, twenty, and forty years’ time.

He began: “I prophesy that in five years’ time, in 1933, Munich will be part of a Germany that has just suffered five million unemployed and that is ruled by a dictator with a certifiable mental illness who will proceed to murder six million Jews.”

His audience said: “Ah, then you must think that in fifteen years’ time we will be in a sad plight.”

“No,” replied the prophet, “I prophesy that in 1943 Munich will be part of a Greater Germany whose flag will fly from the Volga to Bordeaux, from Northern Norway to the Sahara.”

“Ah, then you must think that in twenty years’ time, we will be mighty indeed.”

“No, my guess is that in 1948 Munich will be part of a Germany that stretches only from the Elbe to the Rhine, and whose ruined cities will recently have seen production down to only 10 percent of the 1928 level.”

“So you think we face black ruin in forty years’ time?”

“No, by 1968 I prophesy that real income per head in Munich will be four times greater than now, and that in the year after that 90 percent of German adults will sit looking at a box in a corner of their drawing rooms, which will show live pictures of a man walking upon the moon.”

They locked him up as a madman, of course.