Proteus: Insights from 2020

Book Review from Technological Forecasting and Social Change Journal
Harold A. Linstone

The research was conducted by Litton/TASC, Deloitte Consulting/The Futures Group, and The Copernicus Institute for the National Reconnaissance Office to assist in characterizing its future operating environment and develop a critical look at its long-range research strategy. The large and diverse team included intelligence professionals and outsiders. It represents the first phase (18 months) of the Proteus Project. Phase II will focus on construction of notional intelligence systems, Phase III on developing a new gaming environment, and Phase IV on examining specific emerging technologies and scientific techniques with the aim of recommending the funding of key technologies not being developed elsewhere. Such an approach, if implemented, should give us a much higher degree of confidence in our intelligence community.

One must admire the open-mindedness that underwrote this project. It reminds one of the innovative projects undertaken by the aerospace sector half a century ago — hardly surprising in view of the involvement of The Futures Group and the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force as Director of the National Reconnaissance Office — and is a welcome contrast to much of traditional military long-range analysis characterized by hidebound planning to fight the last war over again with better weapons.

Proteus features a striking combination of depth in its insights and imagination in its view of future issues. This remarkable team effort can serve as a model for thinking about the future. Its most salient characteristic is its breaking of the chains of familiar definitions and categorizations that constrain us to view the future in terms of the past and present. It sets a standard that challenges the foresight community.

The structure used in Phase I is based on Deloitte approach — scenario-based planning for technology decision making. It has been used by corporations in relating their technology plans via alternative scenarios to markets and products to draw forth robust strategies. The new aspect is its use of a wide spectrum of creative minds in the 2020 context.

Let us hope the next phases of Proteus will be equally perceptive and well done.